Thursday, October 20, 2011

What numbers should we be afraid of?

A lot of focus has been given to the United State's debt. Politicians talk about it ad nauseam.

Have you ever thought about what they haven't told you about the debt? Well first, whenever they say the government is broke, that isn't true. Ten year U.S. Treasury bonds have really low interest rates, so other countries see the United States as a good investment and continue to give us money.

But, what should worry American's isn't the size of the debt, but the ratio of the debt to the U.S. Gross Domestic Product. The U.S.'s 2011 GDP estimate is $15.065 trillion. The projected deficit? Well, it is currently at $14,931,186,933.22. The deficit is roughly 99 percent of the GDP.

That's like saying someone that makes about $40,000 a year has a debt level of about $39,900. It would take the individual and the United States a whole year to pay off the debt by taking all available assets and diverting them to paying down the debt.

(Interestingly enough, while the U.S. is getting close to 100 percent debt vs. income [GDP is the defacto economic wealth statistic for countries] average Americans can have debt that doubles or even triples their income. A single mortgage of $90,000 almost doubles the 2010 median American salary of about $50,000.)

So, OK it is getting pretty bad. In fact, we might want to start worrying because countries begin to unravel around the time their national debt reaches 100 percent GDP, according to a report by NPR's Planet Money. However, an argument can be made that because the international currency is the dollar, the U.S. will last longer, but I doubt it will be much longer.

This is why we have to be careful when making budget cuts. Yes, budget cuts and reforms are needed, as are revenue increases. The reason? If the budget cuts happen to put a bigger strain on the economy and cause a recession anyway, it is possible the value of money cut will not be as great as the loss in GDP. If that occurs, sure the almost $15 trillion debt will recede. But, the debt to GDP ratio could remain the same, and still cause headaches for the country.

If we aren't careful, we could end up like Greece, which has a debt to GDP ratio of about 140 percent.

And if you have looked at the news at all, they aren't doing too hot.

This is the information our media and politicians should be given us. It isn't just about how HIGH the debt it is, but it is about how MUCH it is drowning us.

1 comment:

  1. The obvious places to take away from the deficit reside in the wars overseas, which sort of started all of this collapse within our economy. Do you think that pulling the troops out of Iraq, and hopefully phasing them out of Afghanistan will help begin the cutting of costs enough to get this whole process started? I know that Obama has been issuing these Executive Orders to slash costs, but his capabilities are so limited that these changes will hardly make a dent. Where would you start with the deficit reduction cuts?

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